Aniline: A gradual change in consumption structure, overcapacity, excess capacity
In recent years, the production and consumption of aniline in China have shown a rapid development trend. Due to rapid growth in demand, from the beginning of 2004 to the first half of 2005, the domestic aniline market has been booming in both production and sales, and prices have soared. As a result, many domestic companies are optimistic about the prospects of the aniline market and have expanded or built new aniline projects. One round of aniline construction boom is gradually form. However, what is worrying is that the consumption structure of domestic aniline is quietly changing. Industry experts have warned that we must fully understand the changes in the market for aniline demand, pay close attention to fluctuations in the consumption structure affecting aniline demand, and avoid blindly expanding production to prevent overcapacity.
The market optimistic about the capacity to follow up At present, China has more than 20 aniline manufacturers, with a total annual production capacity of about 50 million tons, the main production process using nitrobenzene catalytic hydrogenation. Among them, there are 5 enterprises with an annual output of over 20,000 tons, accounting for approximately 57.5% of the total production capacity of aniline; 10 enterprises with an annual output of 10,000 tons have 10 companies, accounting for 31.7% of the total; The annual production scale is below 10,000 tons.
In recent years, due to the tight supply and demand of aniline products, some aniline manufacturers have increased the production load of their installations, but the output still cannot meet the growing needs of the market. Therefore, some large-scale production enterprises have started to The device is expanded or modified. For example, the newly built 100,000-ton/year plant of Nanjing Chemical Plant in Nanjing Chemical Industry Park is expected to be put into production in 2006; the 130,000-ton plant in Shanxi Tianji Group is expected to be put into operation by the end of 2005; PetroChina Jilin Chemical Company plans to present 136,000 Ton/year plant was expanded to 200,000 tons/year, and the preliminary market research work has been completed; Jiangsu Meilan Group plans to expand the current 25,000 tons/year plant to 80,000 tons/year this year; Taixing Xinpu Chemical Group plans to This year, the existing 45,000 tons/year aniline plant will be expanded to 90,000 tons/year; Jiangsu Jiangyin Shuangliang Group's 30,000 tons/year aniline production plant is expected to be put into production by the end of 2005. In addition, a number of domestic aniline plants for large-scale MDI production facilities are also under construction. It is estimated that by 2006, the capacity of major domestic aniline production facilities will be reduced to around 850,000 tons, while the domestic demand will be 730,000 to 740,000 tons. There will be some excess capacity.
The gradual change in consumption structure China's aniline consumption structure is different from developed countries. In the United States, Western Europe and Japan and other countries and regions, MDI accounted for the highest consumption, consumption accounted for about 80% of total aniline consumption; followed by rubber additives, accounting for about 11% of total aniline consumption; dyes and About 3% of pigments; other about 6%. The composition of aniline consumption in China in 2004 was roughly: organic intermediates accounted for 30%, MDI accounted for 25%, rubber auxiliaries accounted for 15%, dyes industry accounted for 13%, pharmaceutical industry accounted for 10%, pesticide industry accounted for 5%, others accounted for 2%. It can be seen that only 25% of domestic MDIs occupy the first place in aniline consumption abroad. At present, China's MDI manufacturer is only Shandong Yantai Wanhua Group Corporation. With the completion of other MDI devices, it is expected that in 2005 China's total production capacity of MDI will exceed 400,000 tons, and the output will reach approximately 170,000 tons. The demand for aniline The amount will reach about 140,000 tons, and the demand for aniline will continue to increase. The dyes, pigments and their intermediates are the traditional consumption fields of aniline in China. In the following years, due to the large number of dye manufacturers, dispersive layouts and fierce market competition, the demand for aniline for dyes and organic pigments will increase in the next few years. The magnitude will not be great. Rubber auxiliaries are another major consumption area of ​​aniline. With the rapid growth of the demand for rubber products, the demand for aniline will continue to grow, but we must see that the product structure of rubber auxiliaries in China is also being adjusted, which also gives aniline The growth in demand has brought uncertainties. The demand for rubber chemicals for aniline is not optimistic. Consumption of aniline is less in other areas, and the demand growth rate is relatively slow. The aniline industry in China is facing fierce competition.
Enterprises do not need to take precautions In view of the present and future status of China's aniline production and demand, industry experts believe that the development of the aniline industry in the future should be two legs. On the one hand to open up the international market. Aniline resources are not abundant in neighboring Asian countries. In particular, countries such as South Korea and India have a large demand for aniline and its downstream products. Domestically, large-scale, low-cost aniline must be produced on the basis of scaled equipment for export, and domestic excess production capacity should be digested. On the other hand, increase the development or adjustment of downstream products of aniline and promote the consumption of aniline. The scale of MDI production should be expanded as soon as possible. The main intermediate of p-phenylenediamine antioxidants is p-aminodiphenylamine. The traditional production process is the condensation of aniline with p-nitrochlorobenzene, and the currently developed clean, low-cost process uses nitrobenzene condensation with aniline. Rubber auxiliaries should increase technological development to increase the consumption of aniline.
The market optimistic about the capacity to follow up At present, China has more than 20 aniline manufacturers, with a total annual production capacity of about 50 million tons, the main production process using nitrobenzene catalytic hydrogenation. Among them, there are 5 enterprises with an annual output of over 20,000 tons, accounting for approximately 57.5% of the total production capacity of aniline; 10 enterprises with an annual output of 10,000 tons have 10 companies, accounting for 31.7% of the total; The annual production scale is below 10,000 tons.
In recent years, due to the tight supply and demand of aniline products, some aniline manufacturers have increased the production load of their installations, but the output still cannot meet the growing needs of the market. Therefore, some large-scale production enterprises have started to The device is expanded or modified. For example, the newly built 100,000-ton/year plant of Nanjing Chemical Plant in Nanjing Chemical Industry Park is expected to be put into production in 2006; the 130,000-ton plant in Shanxi Tianji Group is expected to be put into operation by the end of 2005; PetroChina Jilin Chemical Company plans to present 136,000 Ton/year plant was expanded to 200,000 tons/year, and the preliminary market research work has been completed; Jiangsu Meilan Group plans to expand the current 25,000 tons/year plant to 80,000 tons/year this year; Taixing Xinpu Chemical Group plans to This year, the existing 45,000 tons/year aniline plant will be expanded to 90,000 tons/year; Jiangsu Jiangyin Shuangliang Group's 30,000 tons/year aniline production plant is expected to be put into production by the end of 2005. In addition, a number of domestic aniline plants for large-scale MDI production facilities are also under construction. It is estimated that by 2006, the capacity of major domestic aniline production facilities will be reduced to around 850,000 tons, while the domestic demand will be 730,000 to 740,000 tons. There will be some excess capacity.
The gradual change in consumption structure China's aniline consumption structure is different from developed countries. In the United States, Western Europe and Japan and other countries and regions, MDI accounted for the highest consumption, consumption accounted for about 80% of total aniline consumption; followed by rubber additives, accounting for about 11% of total aniline consumption; dyes and About 3% of pigments; other about 6%. The composition of aniline consumption in China in 2004 was roughly: organic intermediates accounted for 30%, MDI accounted for 25%, rubber auxiliaries accounted for 15%, dyes industry accounted for 13%, pharmaceutical industry accounted for 10%, pesticide industry accounted for 5%, others accounted for 2%. It can be seen that only 25% of domestic MDIs occupy the first place in aniline consumption abroad. At present, China's MDI manufacturer is only Shandong Yantai Wanhua Group Corporation. With the completion of other MDI devices, it is expected that in 2005 China's total production capacity of MDI will exceed 400,000 tons, and the output will reach approximately 170,000 tons. The demand for aniline The amount will reach about 140,000 tons, and the demand for aniline will continue to increase. The dyes, pigments and their intermediates are the traditional consumption fields of aniline in China. In the following years, due to the large number of dye manufacturers, dispersive layouts and fierce market competition, the demand for aniline for dyes and organic pigments will increase in the next few years. The magnitude will not be great. Rubber auxiliaries are another major consumption area of ​​aniline. With the rapid growth of the demand for rubber products, the demand for aniline will continue to grow, but we must see that the product structure of rubber auxiliaries in China is also being adjusted, which also gives aniline The growth in demand has brought uncertainties. The demand for rubber chemicals for aniline is not optimistic. Consumption of aniline is less in other areas, and the demand growth rate is relatively slow. The aniline industry in China is facing fierce competition.
Enterprises do not need to take precautions In view of the present and future status of China's aniline production and demand, industry experts believe that the development of the aniline industry in the future should be two legs. On the one hand to open up the international market. Aniline resources are not abundant in neighboring Asian countries. In particular, countries such as South Korea and India have a large demand for aniline and its downstream products. Domestically, large-scale, low-cost aniline must be produced on the basis of scaled equipment for export, and domestic excess production capacity should be digested. On the other hand, increase the development or adjustment of downstream products of aniline and promote the consumption of aniline. The scale of MDI production should be expanded as soon as possible. The main intermediate of p-phenylenediamine antioxidants is p-aminodiphenylamine. The traditional production process is the condensation of aniline with p-nitrochlorobenzene, and the currently developed clean, low-cost process uses nitrobenzene condensation with aniline. Rubber auxiliaries should increase technological development to increase the consumption of aniline.
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