U.S. Manufacturing Accident Shrinks Risk Aversion Looks Up

On Monday (July 2nd), the euro fell against the US dollar and the US dollar fell against the yen. As the data show that the US manufacturing sector in June has shrunk for the first time since July 2009, risk aversion has resurfaced, and this data has become a slowing US economic recovery. Another sign.

Michael Woolfolk, senior foreign exchange strategist at Bank of New York Mellon wrote in his report to clients: “The global market reacted more strongly to this data than expected, suggesting that it is very sensitive to the unexpected economic downturn in the United States.”

USD/JPY fell 0.31% to 79.52. It was 79.29 after the US data was released. The euro fell 0.61% against the US dollar to 1.2581. After the US data released, it dropped to 1.2567 at most; the euro fell to 1% against the Japanese yen to 100.04. The increase in the euro against the yen last Friday was the largest since last March.

According to the June manufacturing report released by the American Institute for Supply Management (ISM), the ISM manufacturing index fell to 49.7, which is lower than the 53.5 in May this year. This is the first time since July 2009 that it has fallen below 50's growth/atrophy. 49.7 is also below the average 52.5 expected by economists.

This is the first time that the ISM Manufacturing Index has fallen below 50 for the first time in three years, which means that the manufacturing sector is shrinking. This situation is mainly related to the sharp decline in the new orders index. Today’s highly regarded report shows that the economic situation in the United States is deteriorating.

David Pankiw, a partner at Cubic Financial Advisors, said: "The ISM index is below 50 points, confirming that manufacturing activity is slowing down. The US economy will follow the pace of global economic slowdown."

In addition, the uncertainty about the prospect of an agreement to stabilize the euro zone bond market also plagues investors. Finland and the Netherlands oppose the use of the euro zone permanent bailout fund to buy government bonds in the secondary market, raising doubts about the prospects of the plan and dragging on the euro. which performed.

Brad Bechtel, managing director of Faros Trading, warned that the negative news in Europe is likely to continue, will keep uncertainty high and keep the market uneasy. He said that this situation "usually will make things even worse."

The euro is still the focus of the market. The ECB meeting this week is expected to relax its policy. The European Central Bank (ECB) on Thursday lowered its main refinancing rate by 25 basis points to 0.75%, and the overnight deposit rate is also expected to be lowered to 0%.

Some market players are expecting the European Central Bank to announce new stimulus measures to support the weakening eurozone economy. Analysts said that if these hopes for Europe and Silver fail, the market will be disappointed.

The US market was closed on Wednesday due to the Independence Day holiday, which may also cause the liquidity of the market before the ECB meeting to decline. Bechtel said: "This week, there will be an American Independence Day holiday and, together with the release of a large number of economic data, these two factors will make risk operations extremely dangerous."

The market on Monday was in stark contrast to last Friday, when the euro rose by about 1.8% against the US dollar as eurozone leaders agreed to allow European bailout funds to directly inject capital into troubled banks from next year and intervene in bond market support. Member States. However, the details of the agreement are rough, and doubts remain as to whether the bailout fund has sufficient funds to build a firewall and prevent the crisis from spreading to even larger second-tier countries.

Many market participants said that the euro’s rise may be exhausted, especially if second-tier countries’ government bond yields begin to rise to the high level after the euro’s recent hit. The Italian and Spanish 10-year bond yields fell on Monday, but their financing costs are still near record highs.

Lutz Karpowitz, a strategist at the German currency exchange in London, said: "Optimism will subside this week. If the Italian and Spanish bond yields increase, the selling pressure of the euro against the US dollar will increase. The agreement is just to make the capital contributors spend more. Debt countries receive more assistance. This will lead to political disagreements and not a long-term solution.