Overcapacity, severe structural adjustment, transformation into the main line of work

The data
The quality of economic operation ranks first in the country
The China Petroleum and Chemical Industry Association recently disclosed that the quality of the economic operation of the petroleum and chemical industries ranked first in the national industrial sector in 2009. From January to October 2009, the industrial added value of the whole industry increased by 19.6% year-on-year, which was higher than the national average of 10.2. Percentage point; It is expected that the industrial output value of the whole industry in 2009 will reach 6.5 trillion yuan, and the profit is expected to reach 500 billion yuan.
As of the end of November 2009, there were a total of 34,697 manufacturing enterprises in the petroleum and chemical industries in the country. The total output value reached 635.91 billion yuan this month, the highest level in the year, a substantial increase of 28.4% year-on-year and an increase of 3.9% from the previous quarter. By sector, the output value of the chemical industry was 372.19 billion yuan, an increase of 39.5% over the same period of last year, which was 41% faster; the output value of the oil and natural gas extraction industry was 73.4 billion yuan, an increase of 8.7% over the same period of the previous year. It achieved positive growth for the first time in 2009 and 9.9 points faster than the same period in 2008. Percentage points; the output value of the oil refining industry was 174.27 billion yuan, an increase of 20.8% year-on-year, an acceleration of 19.6%, and that of the special equipment manufacturing industry was 16.05 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 3.5%. In November 2009, the added value of the petroleum and chemical industries increased by 21.6% year-on-year, which was 4.7 percentage points higher than that in October 2009. Among them, the oil and natural gas extraction industry increased by 9.7%, the refining industry increased by 20.3%, and the chemical industry increased by 32.8%.
From January to November 2009, the total output value of the petroleum and chemical industries was 5.94 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 3%, and the decline rate was 3 percentage points lower than that from January to October 2009; the output value of the oil and natural gas industry decreased by 32.1% year-on-year, and the refining industry declined. 7.6%, the chemical industry grew by 7.4%. The industry-wide added value increased by 10.4% year-on-year. The oil and natural gas industry grew by 7.1%, the refining industry increased by 3.9%, and the chemical industry increased by 15.1%.
Operating characteristics
Increase in output of major products Industry economy gradually stabilizes and picks up
In 2009, the economic operation of the petrochemical industry largely went through a sharp decline at the beginning of the year. After March, the industry economy gradually stabilized and recovered, and the high-speed growth at the end of the year was several stages. Specifically, it showed seven characteristics, including double-digit growth in value added across the industry, recovery growth in the output of major products, and a gradual narrowing of profit decline.
Industrywide added value to achieve double-digit growth
From January to November 2009, the national oil and chemical industry increased by 10.4% year-on-year, which was higher than the national average (10.3%). In terms of time, the growth rate was 6.6% at the beginning of the year, with an increase of 7.7% in the first half of the year and an increase of 9.06% in the first three quarters, indicating a gradual growth trend. In terms of sub-industries, the oil and natural gas industry grew by 7.1%; the oil refining industry increased by 3.9%; and the chemical industry grew by 15.1%, which was particularly prominent.
The main product output has a recovery growth
At the beginning of 2009, due to the financial crisis, the output of more than 60 kinds of key petrochemical products tracked by the petrochemical association, compared with the same period of the previous year, decreased by 36, accounting for 58%. After August of last year, most products showed recoverable growth and the growth rate accelerated significantly. In the first 11 months, the number of products increased by more than 90% year-on-year. In addition to a slight drop in crude oil production by 0.5%, other key products have increased in varying degrees. Among them, natural gas increased by 8%, crude oil processing volume increased by 6.4%, refined oil products increased by 7.8%, chemical fertilizers increased by 14.3%, pesticides increased by 12%, ethylene increased by 3.6%, synthetic resins increased by 8.7%, and synthetic fiber monomers and polymers increased by 10%. %, Tire tyres increased by 15.6%.
The decline in profits has narrowed and taxes have increased dramatically
From January to November 2009, the main business income of the petroleum and chemical industry was 5.81 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 3.3%, a decrease of 16.38 percentage points from January to February, and a 7 percentage point decrease from January to August; the total profit was 4190.63. Billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 5.2%, a decrease of 51.16 percentage points from January to February, a 14.5 percentage point decrease from January to August, and an obvious acceleration in the fourth quarter profit recovery. It is estimated that the annual profit in 2009 will be about 500 billion yuan, which is about to decline. 4%; Loss-making enterprises suffered a loss of 47.791 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 77.5%.
Tax payment to the country increased substantially. From January to November 2009, the total industry tax totaled 458.36 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 52.2%, and a net tax increase of 157.18 billion yuan.
Midwestern petrochemical industry grows faster
Statistics show that in 2009, the total output value of the petroleum and chemical industries in Shandong, Jiangsu, Guangdong and Liaoning provinces still ranks among the top in the country.
In the first 11 months, the output value of the above four provinces reached 1,100.383 billion yuan, 779.745 billion yuan, 457.126 billion yuan and 427.877 billion yuan respectively, which together accounted for 46.6% of the total output value of the petroleum and chemical industries in the country. From the perspective of growth rate, Inner Mongolia, Jiangxi, Sichuan, Chongqing, Fujian, and Hubei ranked the top six, with 23.1%, 15.5%, 13.4%, 12.8%, 11.3%, and 10.4%, respectively, mainly in the central and western regions. At present, there is no major change in the pattern of China's petrochemical industry, and the center of gravity is still in the eastern coastal areas, but the pace of development in the central and western regions has accelerated significantly.
The main product demand continued to rise
Driven by domestic demand, the demand for major petrochemical industries in the country continued to increase in 2009, and the apparent consumption of products continued to rise. From January to November 2009, the sales rate of the entire industry was 98.08%, an increase of 0.09 percentage points year-on-year and an increase of 2.35 percentage points from the beginning of the year (96.73%). The growth in consumption of major products, including the apparent consumption of oil, increased by 2.2% year-on-year, 5.1% higher than in the first half; ethylene rose by 5.9%, 9.1 percentage points over the first half; apparent consumption of sulfuric acid, caustic soda, soda ash and other products increased. Compared with the first half of the year, there was a significant increase.
Industry investment maintains steady growth
From January to November 2009, the investment in fixed assets of the petroleum and chemical industries nationwide totaled 878.253 billion yuan, an increase of 12.13% year-on-year, down 19.5 percentage points, or 20 percentage points lower than the average increase in fixed asset investment of the same period (32.1%). In terms of different industries, the investment in the chemical industry increased by 26.8%, and continued to maintain rapid growth. The growth rate of the phosphate fertilizer industry was 76.2%, that of the compound fertilizer industry was increased by 50%, that of the pesticide industry was increased by 37.9%, that of the paint and pigment industry was increased by 33.8%, and that special chemicals were used for manufacturing. The growth rate was 35.4%, and the rubber products industry increased by 32%. However, the oil and gas exploration industry and the oil refining industry experienced a larger decline in investment, which fell by 9% and 13.3% year-on-year respectively.
Foreign trade has gradually stabilized
In the first 11 months of 2009, the total import and export trade volume of the petroleum and chemical industry was 289.143 billion U.S. dollars, a year-on-year decrease of 28%, a decrease of 8.5 percentage points from the first half of the year, and the decline in the fourth quarter accelerated. Among them, total imports amounted to US$2012.36 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 28.1%, a decrease of 10.3 percentage points from the first half of the year; exports totaled 87.907 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 27.6%, and a 4.4 percentage point decrease from the first half. In general, the decline in the import and export trade of the industry gradually narrowed in 2009, and gradually stabilized, but the decline was still relatively large. It is estimated that the total volume of imports and exports will fall by about 25% in the year, with imports falling by about 26% and exports falling by about 25%.
Industrial thinking
Overcapacity problem highlights that effective demand is still insufficient
The petrochemical association report pointed out that although the trend of recovery of the industrial economy has gradually become evident in 2009, and has been continuously strengthened, the foundation for recovery is still not stable, the internal development of the industry is still unbalanced, and problems in economic operation such as overcapacity and insufficient effective demand remain. More prominent.
Overcapacity problems highlighted
Judging from the current industry-wide perspective, except for a small number of product capabilities, most products are surplus, and some surpluses are quite serious. According to preliminary statistics, in the first 11 months of 2009, the average operating rate of the caustic soda industry was less than 70%; the soda ash was less than 80%; the phosphate fertilizer was less than 65%; and the PVC was only about 55%; the methanol plant operating rate was less than 50%. It is worth noting that some industries with serious excess production capacity are still accelerating. According to statistics, in the first 11 months of 2009, investment in phosphate fertilizers, pesticides, coatings, paints, rubber products, and inorganic salts increased by 76.2% and 37.9% respectively. 33.8%, 32%, and 29.2%, which are significantly higher than the average level of investment in the industry. Methanol and other coal chemical projects are "flowering everywhere."
The demand for effective demand is still insufficient
In 2009, while the apparent consumption of some major products continued to rise, the effective demand momentum remained insufficient, the market remained sluggish, and the company’s inventory increased. It is understood that, as of the end of November last year, chemical fertilizers, some petrochemical products, "two alkalis", refined oil and other manufacturing enterprises and sales companies have high stocks. In addition, the market downturn has not changed fundamentally. From January to November 2009, the price index for the petroleum and chemical industries was 84.55, of which the price index for the chemical industry was 88.22. The prices of most chemical products have been hovering low. At the same time, under the impetus of rising international crude oil prices, chemical companies are also facing upward pressure on costs. Although the profits of the chemical industry in general have achieved growth, their profitability is weak, and the sales profit rate is only 5%. Most companies are still making profits and losses. Struggling online.
The export of petrochemical products is seriously hindered
According to customs statistics, from January to November 2009, China’s imports of organic products increased by 53.1% year-on-year, of which imports of ethylene and methanol rose by 37.7% and 360.4% year-on-year; imports of synthetic resins increased by 23% year-on-year, including polyethylene, poly Imports of propylene and polyvinyl chloride rose by 68.6%, 52.8% and 85.3% respectively year-on-year. The sharp increase in imports of petrochemical products is one of the most important reasons for the continuing downturn in the domestic market. At the same time, due to the lack of external demand and trade protectionism, China's petrochemical exports have been severely hampered. In the first 11 months of 2009, China's exports of inorganic and organic products decreased by 13.7% and 10.1% respectively, synthetic resin decreased by 21.8%, tires decreased by 7.3%, and chemical fertilizers decreased by 14.2%. This increase or decrease has greatly increased the competition in the domestic market.
trend
Changing Development Modes, Adjusting Industrial Structure and Optimizing Layout
Feng Shiliang, deputy secretary-general of the China Petroleum and Chemical Industry Association, said that in 2010 the petrochemical industry will focus on the following tasks: “Transforming the development mode, adjusting the industrial structure and optimizing the layout, promoting technological progress, and strengthening the international competitiveness of the industry”.
Domestic demand will be the main driving force for the growth of the petrochemical industry
In 2010, the world economy may be in a process of slow recovery. As a whole, it still has not emerged from the downturn. Therefore, the world economy will have limited growth in demand for energy and chemical products, and the global petrochemical market will still exceed supply. Therefore, the export resistance of China's petrochemical products is still very large. At the same time, international trade protectionism will continue to strengthen. In 2010, China’s petrochemical products will continue to be the hardest hit areas for trade frictions. Foreign multinational companies will use anti-dumping measures or raise technical trade barriers to crack down on China’s product exports and try to enter the Chinese market through various dumping methods.
The domestic petrochemical market will continue to maintain a certain growth. In 2010, China will still implement a proactive fiscal policy and a relatively loose monetary policy, and the macro economy will continue to maintain a relatively rapid growth. Therefore, the demand for energy and chemical products in the domestic market will maintain a certain growth, but the growth rate may be Slowed down. In 2010, domestic demand will be the main driving force for the growth of the petrochemical industry. It is estimated that in 2010, the industry-wide added value will increase by about 12%, the total output value will increase by 13% to 15%, the main business revenue will increase by about 14%, the profit will increase by 8% to 10%, the import and export trade volume will increase by about 15%, and the investment growth will increase by 15%. Above the %, the output of major products increased by 1% to 10%.
"Promoting transformation" will become the main line of economic work in the industry
Zhao Jungui, vice chairman and secretary-general of the Petrochemical Association, recently stated that the 2010 Petrochemical Association will closely focus on transforming the center of economic development, focusing on stabilizing economic operations, adjusting industrial structure, promoting technological innovation, and promoting energy conservation and emission reduction. Aspects of work.
Stable economic operation. Improve the rapid operation mechanism of economic operation, strengthen monitoring and analysis of the economic operation of the industry, improve the quality and efficiency of economic operation and consultation, and express reports; promptly report to the government departments on the status of industrial economic operations and hot issues, and put forward opinions and suggestions; promote the steady growth of foreign trade; Strengthen the coordination of international trade, open up new and emerging international markets; increase the use of foreign investment and promote overseas investment cooperation; strengthen quality management, continue to promote the construction of enterprise quality credit system and industry standardization system, improve product quality and meet market demand.
industrial restructuring. In 2010, the petrochemical association should combine the elimination of backward production capacity with the cultivation of emerging industries, study and formulate relevant industry access conditions, improve the standard system for promoting the transformation of production methods, and promote the government's introduction of overcapacity withdrawal and compensation mechanisms. Actively cultivate strategic new industries such as chemical new materials and fine chemicals in new fields, and promote the government to issue relevant preferential policies. At the same time do a good job in the industry's "12th Five-Year Plan" research.
Promote technological innovation. The focus of technological innovation will be on technological transformation of traditional industries, using new technologies to transform traditional industries, and using new technologies to lead the development of emerging industries. Select a number of key projects of technological transformation, for the support of the relevant state departments; at the same time in the new chemical materials, fine chemicals in new areas to promote cooperation between production and research, and establish a strategic emerging industry technology innovation alliance.
Promote energy conservation and emission reduction. We will vigorously promote the innovation of energy-saving technologies and emission reduction technologies, cultivate a group of enterprises and parks that have achieved remarkable results in the development of low-carbon economy and circular economy, and gradually optimize the energy consumption structure of the entire industry. Ensure that the “Eleventh Five-Year” energy saving and emission reduction targets are exceeded. Strengthen the target responsibility system, speed up the construction of key projects for energy conservation and environmental protection, and give play to the leading role of key industries and key enterprises in energy conservation and emission reduction.

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